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Pre-Season Gamble

Posted by KJB on 1st August 2009 @ 14:09pm | Tagged under: betting | Add Comment
I’m a gambling man and I can’t deny it. During the season I’ll have a few accumulators in and there throughout the European Leagues for a little fun (which one week turned in £5,000). Sure, it’s more than just picking teams at random - I read the team form, league position etc and come up with reasonable selections and optimise my chance of winning by trying varying combinations.

Nevertheless, when the seasons over I get that gambling itch and look for decent prices. The first I got was just over evens on Ronaldo leaving Man Utd at the start of summer. Deep down, I knew he was going. I just knew it. So I put money on and got myself a tidy little profit for it.

Looking at the lists of bets now, I’m looking at the Premier League winners without the top 4 market on betfair. Every year Tottenham are high on the list and this year doesn’t disappoint. As of this morning, Man City are the obvious favourites at 11/10, but Tottenham are right up there second favourites at 9/2.

So is this a good bet?

Well, Harry Redknapp did wonders for the club last season despite the troubled start to the season but can he keep up that momentum this season? Perhaps. But backing Tottenham isn’t my bet - laying them NOT to win is.

It doesn’t seem conceivable to me that Tottenham will finish above Man City, Everton or even Aston Villa this season especially if City manage to break into the top 4 with those big money summer signings.

I’ll definitely be having a 50 spot on that lay - what about you? Get over to the betfair link on you right and get on it, if not, why not? I want to hear your thoughts and opinion on this, so come on! Get involved!

An Accumulator For the Weekend: Week 2

Posted by KJB on 18th September 2009 @ 20:00pm | Tagged under: betting | (1) Comment

My selections for last week almost made me a little money, but with accumulators almost is not enough. Liverpool to beat Burnley, West Brom beat Plymouth and Sunderland beat Hull, but Charlton (who had a 100% record up until this match) could only manage a draw at home against Southampton. It wasn’t a result anyone could see coming and that’s probably why it’s so damned annoying. Let’s hope my selections for this week fair better.

Arsenal to Beat Wigan (handicap -1)

Okay, so Arsenal have a few injuries and were almost embarrassed royally during the week by Standard Liege, but let’s face it, Wigan’s away record isn’t the best having already lost to Everton and Blackpool (in round 2 of the League Cup) this season, with a home record not much better having lost 5-0 to Man Utd last month. Whereas, Arsenal have yet to be defeated at home this season and I’m so confident that they’ll win, I’m going to back them with a -1 handicap (meaning Arsenal have to win by 2 clear goals).

Aston Villa to Beat Portsmouth

I’m a little wary of backing Villa at their home ground - we have a system set up geared more towards away games and therefore comes as no shock that our away record is better than our home record, somewhat highlighted on the opening day of the season when the Villains were truly embarrassed by Wigan. However, since that game we have been undefeated and even carved out a nice 2-0 home win against last season mid-table rivals Fulham a couple of weeks back. Am I worried about the bust up between O’Neill and Reo-Coker (who is almost certainly not playing tomorrow)? Yes I am. I think Reo-Coker is the only decent central midfielder we have at the moment and it’ll be a real shame to lose him, but I think our talented wingers and rock solid defence will more than make up for it.

And Portsmouth…well, what can I say? They’ve yet to win a game all season and I still think they’ll be facing the drop come May. Whilst I think this maybe the one bet that’ll bite me in the arse this week, I just can’t see Villa not winning this match - I just hope it’s my favourite team blinkers not making the decision for me.

Juventus to Beat Livorno

So I thought I’d go to Italy to pick out my next bet, as I liked the look of the fixture despite the league only being 3 games into the season. I feel Juventus are back to their winning ways after having rising from the ashes of their league demotion a few years back and are finally getting results. They have a strong team again and I feel will really challenge Inter for the Serie A crown this year.

Livorno were newly promoted to Serie A last year and haven’t had the best of starts so far, drawing 2 and losing 1 and I just think Juve will have the strength to see the new side off.

Real Madrid to Beat Xerez (-1 Handicap)

Look at me being all continental and whatnot! But really, I liked the look of this fixture because it’s so similar to the Juve selection: a ridiculously strong team playing at home against a newly promoted side. Despite the league only being 2 games in and thus unable to see what all the teams are capable of, I’m confident that Real will pound the newcomers and so do the bookmakers. The odds were VERY short for this one and so I slapped on the - handicap to beef things up a little, but I really don’t think it’s going to be much of a obstacle.

Round Up

So here’s the rundown:

- Arsenal to beat Wigan with a -1 handicap.

- Villa to beat Portsmouth

- Juventus to beat Livorno

- Real Madrid to beat Xerez with a -1 handicap

Good luck for the weekend and follow me in on this bet at your own peril!!!

An Accumulator For the Weekend: Week 3

Posted by KJB on 25th September 2009 @ 18:00pm | Tagged under: betting | Add Comment

Success! For the first time this season I got a return on one of my accumulators and a quite decent one at that! What’s more, I think I know why.

The teams and results are becoming more stable and finally form is kicking in to make the accumulator choices a little easier for me to pick, at least for the English leagues. With Spain and Italy a few games behind us so to speak, I reckon a couple more weeks before those results become stable. That said Barcelona and Read Madrid have already asserted their dominance upon La Liga, already notching up relatively easy wins and thus far earning maximum points.

Definitely something to think about.

Liverpool Over Hull -1 Handicap

A relatively predictable selection for my first pick. Liverpool are on relatively decent form at the moment, whereas Hull are struggling and I think will continue to struggle all season.

The first consideration has to be the opposing league positions. Liverpool currently reside in 3rd place, with Hull helping Portsmouth hold up the bottom of the table in 19th. Liverpool have won all but one of their home games this season (but that was to the mighty Villa, so that can be perfectly understood haha), as well as having a fairly decent away record, only losing out to red-hot Tottenham Hotspur during the first week of the new season. Hull on the other hand have yet to notch up an away win this season and as stated before, look a little shaky. I doubt it'd take much to beat them at the moment imo.

This is set in stone a Liverpool win, or at least I hope it is.

Tottenham Over Burnley

Despite Tottenham's wobble last weekend against Chelsea, they came blazing back from the defeat midweek away to Preston North End, netting five goals and basically dominating the game. True enough, even when all of their back four line-up were fit they did concede too many goals, but as they've proven already this season, they can generally outscore their opponents without too much difficulty.

Burnley are undefeated at home this season in the Premier League, but have also yet to win away from Turf Moor. They are a tough side to play against, especially with Nugent find a little bit of form, but I seriously think the Spurs strike force to be too overwhelming for them to resist.

Real Madrid Over Tenerife

As previously posted, Real Madrid are on awesome form at the moment proving to be every bit a match for Barca and so they should be with the likes of Ronaldo and Kaka becoming the stable of their team. What does concern me about Real is Manuel Pellegrini's promise to rotate the squad. Yes, they have quality in depth but sometimes rotating the squad can cause lack of consistency in play and almost guarantees there’ll be a slip up somewhere down the line.

I just hope this isn't it.

West Brom Over Crystal Palace

West Brom are in superb form at the moment, strolling to a 5-0 victory at Middlesbrough last weekend and basically dominating the Championship at the moment. Whilst I do think the bubble will burst at some point and fixtures will invariably become more and more difficult, I don’t think it's going to start tomorrow against Palace.

So that's my 4 for this week, let's hope I get a little of the same luck from last week! Good luck all!

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